Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 16.989708 19.346693 21.871663 24.773068 28.010041 31.505338 35.560161
2025-08-03 13.114928 16.260379 19.882232 24.341958 29.665164 35.793905 43.361457
2025-08-10 11.278094 14.769857 18.979951 24.394358 31.133355 39.202250 49.547672
2025-08-17 9.926029 13.654668 18.339028 24.599237 32.681315 42.692182 55.948707
2025-08-24 8.793411 12.635347 17.639946 24.556002 33.771679 45.523314 61.518249
2025-08-31 7.807729 11.684876 16.907974 24.352161 34.562276 47.929563 66.579005
2025-09-07 7.101522 11.031330 16.489953 24.489862 35.750260 50.842788 72.365466
2025-09-14 6.665141 10.709923 16.485989 25.165888 37.669229 54.780248 79.657407
2025-09-21 6.023830 10.018217 15.884370 24.924448 38.250882 56.869291 84.459732
2025-09-28 5.248909 9.045827 14.785216 23.860790 37.557404 57.097096 86.614160
2025-10-05 4.999076 8.871948 14.866485 24.546920 39.437323 61.041367 94.184245
2025-10-12 4.735848 8.649759 14.849331 25.067024 41.075237 64.680179 101.430825
2025-10-19 4.355186 8.206618 14.461509 24.998882 41.835678 67.094217 107.039637
2025-10-26 3.965589 7.712798 13.953893 24.702080 42.216217 68.945129 111.875886
2025-11-02 3.674617 7.362699 13.652068 24.707620 43.053057 71.496394 117.835187
2025-11-09 3.449371 7.109615 13.492587 24.931285 44.238597 74.617731 124.769093
2025-11-16 3.199676 6.787471 13.187428 24.881883 44.961170 77.023763 130.655953
2025-11-23 2.949174 6.439954 12.809886 24.677577 45.403046 78.982949 135.886873
2025-11-30 2.771221 6.216663 12.637573 24.816238 46.418661 81.888590 142.710399
2025-12-07 2.681840 6.161879 12.769162 25.500453 48.393852 86.423635 152.310734
2025-12-14 2.477872 5.853988 12.403821 25.256093 48.732848 88.255054 157.538630
2025-12-21 2.191454 5.345366 11.616834 24.179914 47.539660 87.459902 158.372396
2025-12-28 2.132443 5.319803 11.768389 24.874136 49.545837 92.149227 168.522352